I Just Might Pack Up and Head for the Woods

For those of you who don't know, I've been following all this swine flu crap lately. It worries me a little. Being in NYC doesn't help the situation. It's still the area of the country that's been affected the worst. Regardless, I'd like to share a little graph that I created on Excel.


I know a lot of people think that there's nothing to worry about. Kevin tells me constantly that I'm ridiculous for worrying about it. I have had other people tell me that it's just a flu and that there is really no need for concern.

In my readings, I came across this:

from "Swine Flu Cases Up, But CDC Cautiously Optimistic" by Michael J Himowitz, Deputy Managing Editor, MedPage Today, published May 3, 2009

U.S. antiviral drugs distributed

[Anne Schuchat, M.D., the CDC's Interim Deputy Director for Science and Public Health Programs] said CDC has finished deploying 25% of its antiviral drug stockpile to the states -- enough for 11 million regimens. CDC's parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services, has ordered another 13 million courses from manufacturers.

"We don't have an unlimited supply of antivirals, but we're in a lot better shape than we were a few years ago," she said.

She said doctors should try to limit use of antiviral drugs to those with severe symptoms.

Dr. Nancy Cox, Ph.D., director of the agency's Influenza Division, said CDC has also been working with an academic laboratory to create a candidate virus that can be given to vaccine manufacturers in time for fall production if authorities decide it's necessary.

Technical issues will determine how much vaccine can be produced -- but the stickiest question may be who gets it should there not be enough to go around.

CDC typically recommends seasonal flu vaccine for its most susceptible victims -- the elderly and young children. But Dr. Schuchat noted that this novel strain has been far more likely to attack older children and young adults. In fact, the median age of confirmed patients is only 17, and relatively few are over 50.

Older children and young adults? I'm still a young adult. This is not good. And they're worried that it might be worse in the fall! There's no doubt that it's no longer containable. The graph above shows that. The CDC realizes it as well. They sent 11 million regimens of antiviral drugs to the states. They're purchasing 13 million more. They definitely are not thinking that it's going to be kept in the thousands. At this point, I think we should just accept that we're probably going to catch it. I just hope that when I do, there's enough medicine still left for me.